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Military Conflict

Offensive Flight Operations Predicting

What indicators at Russian forward operating bases signal impending offensive operations, and how far in advance do they become detectable through commercial satellite imagery?

Map of Ukraine with Russian-occupied oblasts highlighted in red

About this project

This project examines activity patterns at Russian forward operating bases — aircraft dispersal, fuel and munitions logistics, and support infrastructure — visible in commercially available satellite imagery, and asks whether those patterns can serve as early-warning indicators of offensive air operations.

Status

This research is ongoing. Findings, data, and methods will be published here as the project develops. Interested in contributing? Fill out the interest form.